ANALYSIS OF THE MACRO ECONOMIC Influence Factors FINANCIAL AND PERFORMANCE COMPANY TO BUILD A MODEL PREDICTION Bankruptcy (STUDY AT LISTED COMPANIES IN IDX FOR YEAR 1999-2010)

Veronica, M. Sienly (2013) ANALYSIS OF THE MACRO ECONOMIC Influence Factors FINANCIAL AND PERFORMANCE COMPANY TO BUILD A MODEL PREDICTION Bankruptcy (STUDY AT LISTED COMPANIES IN IDX FOR YEAR 1999-2010). The 10th International Annual Symposium On Management "Challenges And Opportunities Of Leading Edge In World Class Supply Chain Management", - (-). pp. 21-38. ISSN ISBN: 978-979-99365-7-8

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of macroeconomic factors as measured by the rate of inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product and the value of the currency and financial performance factors measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios either simultaneously or partially in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models, to analyze the effect of the variable cash flow in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models simultaneously and to analyze the accuracy of the company's bankruptcy prediction models based on the models of 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before bankruptcy prediction. The purpose of this research is based on the monetary crisis events that occurred in 1997 when many companies went bankruptcy, many companies in Indonesia roomates has a debt to equity ratio (DER) is greater than one (1) show that the company has a chance more Likely to go bankruptcy and disagree from some of previous research that cash flow should variables included in the formation of bankruptcy prediction models. To Achieve the goals of research, researcher make a macroeconomic hypothesis testing using the data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the value of financial ratios and cash flow ratios obtained from IDX and ICMD. By using purposive sampling method in this research, the research sample was contained of 63 companies 34 companies that are not a bankrupt company and 29 companies are a bankrupt company. The companies are listed in BEI for all sectors except the financial sector with the observation period 1999-2010. In this research the hypothesis testing using logistic regression and the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models using neural network testing. The results of these tests are simultaneously macroeconomic factors measured by the rate of inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product and the value of the currency and financial performance factors measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios give effect to the establishment of a prediction of corporate bankruptcy prediction models with the accuracy of prediction models for high bankruptcy 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before the bankruptcy and in cash flow variables simultaneously provide a strong enough influence in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models. Factors only partially financial performance measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios that give effect to the establishment of corporate bankruptcy prediction models with the accuracy of a company's bankruptcy prediction model of high for model 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before the bankruptcy. Thus, companies need to pay attention to macroeconomic factors, financial ratios, and in particular the cash flow ratios to avoid company from bankruptcy.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	bankruptcy models, macroeconomic factors, financial ratios, cash flow ratios.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi > S-1 Manajemen
Depositing User:	admin LPPM
Date Deposited:	23 Feb 2018 07:49
Last Modified:	23 Feb 2018 07:49
URI:	http://repository.lppm.maranatha.edu/id/eprint/428

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